Free Kalshi Volatility Trading Calculator

A volatility touch trade is a strategy where you buy contracts on one side of a Kalshi market, then sell them later — usually within the same event — when the price moves favorably. The goal is to capture a small percentage gain (typically 5-25%) from intra-event price oscillation, NOT to predict the final outcome. Success depends on how much the market price moves around during the event, not on who actually wins.

Touch probability is the chance that the market price will reach (touch) your target sell price at some point before the market resolves. The raw formula comes from the optional stopping theorem applied to a martingale: P(touch S | starting at B) = B/S. If you buy at 60¢ and want to sell at 67¢, the raw probability of touching 67¢ at any point is 60/67 ≈ 89.6%. This calculator then ADJUSTS that probability down based on sport-specific volatility, time remaining, competitiveness, and liquidity — because the raw martingale is an upper bound.

Kalshi charges 7% for taker orders (1.75% for maker). Critically, the fee formula is rate × contracts × price × (1 − price), so fees PEAK at the 50¢ price (the most popular price for touch trades). On a $0.60 contract that you sell at $0.67, the round-trip fees can eat 1.5-2¢ per contract — roughly a quarter of your gross profit. The sell-price solver in this calculator accounts for both buy and sell fees so the displayed sell price actually nets your target profit after everything.

Taker orders execute against existing orders in the order book (matched immediately) and pay 7% fees. Maker orders add liquidity to the book by sitting at a price waiting to be filled — they pay 1.75%, four times less. For volatility touch trades, maker orders are mathematically much better but require patience and risk not getting filled. Use the toggle at the top of the calculator to see how each tier changes the breakeven sell price.

NBA is the gold standard — high-scoring, fast-paced, with frequent lead changes and back-to-back possessions that keep prices oscillating. Tennis and volleyball are close behind. NFL is decent but volatility drops sharply in Q4 when a team gets a lead. NHL and MLB are spottier. Soccer is poor late-game (low scoring, time burning). Golf is the worst — it trends rather than oscillates. The calculator's sport-specific multipliers adjust your touch probability down based on these realities.

A 0-100 weighted average of five factors: competitiveness (closeness to 50¢, 30% weight), sport volatility (25%), time remaining (20%), liquidity (15%), and fee burden (10%). Translates to a letter grade (A+ through F). An A+ trade is something like a 49¢/51¢ NBA game at tip-off with $50k+ daily volume — the math, the matchup, the time, and the liquidity all line up. An F trade is something like a 5¢/95¢ golf market on the final hole.

No. This tool is not affiliated with Kalshi, KalshiEX LLC, or any prediction market operator. We pull market data from Kalshi's public REST API the same way anyone can. The calculator is for educational and analytical purposes — read the disclaimer at the bottom of the page.

No. Volatility trading on prediction markets carries real risk of loss, including total loss of your capital on any given contract. Touch probabilities are mathematical estimates that assume an efficient market — actual results vary based on news, injuries, momentum shifts, and luck. Past market behavior does not guarantee future results. Use this tool to understand the math, not as a substitute for your own judgment.

Any current Kalshi market URL: full market page (kalshi.com/markets/...), event page (kalshi.com/events/...), URLs with ?ticker= query params, and bare tickers (e.g., KXNBAGAME-25MAY15CLEDET-CLE). If you have an event-only URL, the tool resolves it to the first active market within that event.